Stories and Stats
The truth about Obama’s victory
wasn’t in the papers


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Andrew Gelman and John Sides


American presidential elections always turn into stories. Because these stories capture the public imagination, they have real political importance. Unfortunately, they are often wrong. The narrative of Obama’s victory is no exception.



Responses to Gelman and Sides

Rick Perlstein

“Our media will not—cannot—explain the slow, steady work that produces election victories”

Michael C. Dawson

“In 2008, there were 2 million more African-American voters than in 2004”

Andrew Gelman and John Sides respond

“In elections, what is certain is almost never new; what is new is almost never certain”

Richard Johnston and Emily Thorson

“Sarah Palin’s approval ratings moved John McCain’s support with unparalleled precision”

Mark Schmitt

“We should not dismiss the idea that Obama created a new electoral map”




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